Minnesota Wild @ Washington Capitals: Washington Capitals -1.5

LOSS Shadow intent (no money) · lane NHL:spread · source market_scan · starts 2026-11-01 20:30 UTC

Closing line value: +0.0pp. Positive means the entry beat the closing price; negative means it did not. This record id is 16b69d63-8527-4bc3-8b59-9713c926c9c5.

Entry (frozen)

basis: first_seen
at: 2026-11-01T03:43:00.022009
ticker: KXNHLSPREAD-26NOV01MINWSH-WSH2
contract_side: yes
price: 29.0¢
price_kind: ask
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
p_final: 28.8%
p_market: 28.7%
p_model: 29.9%
edge: -2.2pp
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Close

price: 29.0¢
kind: ask
at: 2026-11-01T20:28:00.015741
clv: +0.0pp

Result

outcome: LOSS
settled_at: 2026-11-01T23:16:00.020721
pnl: n/a

Decision

first_seen_at: 2026-11-01T03:43:00.022009
last_evaluated_at: 2026-11-01T04:33:00.023104
evaluations: 6
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
ever_would_bet: no

Decision snapshot

The last evaluation before the event started (shadow) or the numbers at order time (live). Probabilities are DDN SI's; prices are Kalshi's.

at: 2026-11-01T04:33:00.023104
bet_on: Washington Capitals -1.5
line: -1.5
contract_side: yes
price: 29.0¢
price_kind: ask
p_market: 28.7%
p_model: 29.9%
p_final: 28.8%
p_final_source: per_pick_posterior
edge: -2.2pp
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
source: market_scan
best_side: WSH:yes
other_side: edge=-2.8pp, side=WSH:no, price=72.0¢, p_final=71.2%, gate_outcome=rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Versions

source: market_scan
sources: ['market_scan']
decision_source: market_scan
probability_source: per_pick_posterior
posterior_method: market_blend_v1
posterior_computed_at: 2026-11-01T03:33:36.906783
analysis_updated_at: 2026-11-01T03:33:27.906190

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