Columbus Blue Jackets @ Dallas Stars: Dallas Stars -1.5

WIN Shadow intent (no money) · lane NHL:spread · source market_scan · starts 2026-11-01 00:00 UTC

Closing line value: +3.0pp. Positive means the entry beat the closing price; negative means it did not. This record id is 38a53bd9-4f01-4fe9-b56b-d436723e5d78.

Entry (frozen)

basis: first_seen
at: 2026-10-31T02:13:00.025789
ticker: KXNHLSPREAD-26OCT31CBJDAL-DAL2
contract_side: yes
price: 38.0¢
price_kind: ask
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
p_final: 37.6%
p_market: 37.6%
p_model: 37.0%
edge: -2.4pp
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Close

price: 41.0¢
kind: ask
at: 2026-10-31T23:58:00.019787
clv: +3.0pp

Result

outcome: WIN
settled_at: 2026-11-01T02:42:00.024438
pnl: n/a

Decision

first_seen_at: 2026-10-31T02:13:00.025789
last_evaluated_at: 2026-10-31T12:53:00.030432
evaluations: 11
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
ever_would_bet: no

Decision snapshot

The last evaluation before the event started (shadow) or the numbers at order time (live). Probabilities are DDN SI's; prices are Kalshi's.

at: 2026-10-31T12:53:00.030432
bet_on: Dallas Stars -1.5
line: -1.5
contract_side: yes
price: 40.0¢
price_kind: ask
p_market: 39.6%
p_model: 37.0%
p_final: 39.3%
p_final_source: per_pick_posterior
edge: -2.7pp
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
source: market_scan
best_side: DAL:yes
other_side: edge=-3.3pp, side=DAL:no, price=62.0¢, p_final=60.7%, gate_outcome=rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Versions

source: market_scan
sources: ['market_scan']
decision_source: market_scan
probability_source: per_pick_posterior
posterior_method: market_blend_v1
posterior_computed_at: 2026-10-31T02:11:18.010232
analysis_updated_at: 2026-10-31T02:11:16.143174

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