Winnipeg Jets @ Carolina Hurricanes: Winnipeg Jets +1.5

LOSS Shadow intent (no money) · lane NHL:spread · source market_scan · starts 2026-11-01 18:00 UTC

Closing line value: -3.0pp. Positive means the entry beat the closing price; negative means it did not. This record id is 49871cca-996d-4331-a6ca-4e1315807ef9.

Entry (frozen)

basis: first_seen
at: 2026-10-31T20:13:00.024185
ticker: KXNHLSPREAD-26NOV01WPGCAR-CAR2
contract_side: no
price: 53.0¢
price_kind: ask
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
p_final: 51.8%
p_market: 51.0%
p_model: 58.8%
edge: -3.2pp
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Close

price: 50.0¢
kind: ask
at: 2026-11-01T17:58:00.015695
clv: -3.0pp

Result

outcome: LOSS
settled_at: 2026-11-01T20:42:00.034611
pnl: n/a

Decision

first_seen_at: 2026-10-31T20:13:00.024185
last_evaluated_at: 2026-11-01T17:53:00.019945
evaluations: 131
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
ever_would_bet: no

Decision snapshot

The last evaluation before the event started (shadow) or the numbers at order time (live). Probabilities are DDN SI's; prices are Kalshi's.

at: 2026-11-01T17:53:00.019945
bet_on: Winnipeg Jets +1.5
line: 1.5
contract_side: no
price: 51.0¢
price_kind: ask
p_market: 50.5%
p_model: 58.8%
p_final: 51.3%
p_final_source: per_pick_posterior
edge: -1.7pp
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
source: market_scan
best_side: CAR:no
other_side: edge=-3.3pp, side=CAR:yes, price=50.0¢, p_final=48.7%, gate_outcome=rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Versions

source: market_scan
sources: ['market_scan']
decision_source: market_scan
probability_source: per_pick_posterior
posterior_method: market_blend_v1
posterior_computed_at: 2026-10-31T20:06:41.457770
analysis_updated_at: 2026-10-31T20:06:39.567358

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