Columbus Blue Jackets @ Dallas Stars: Columbus Blue Jackets +1.5

LOSS Shadow intent (no money) · lane NHL:spread · source market_scan · starts 2026-11-01 00:00 UTC

Closing line value: -1.0pp. Positive means the entry beat the closing price; negative means it did not. This record id is 50629a3c-79c9-45b8-9ecc-d7c96a2b5af3.

Entry (frozen)

basis: first_seen
at: 2026-10-31T03:13:00.029468
ticker: KXNHLSPREAD-26OCT31CBJDAL-DAL2
contract_side: no
price: 62.0¢
price_kind: ask
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
p_final: 62.4%
p_market: 62.4%
p_model: 63.0%
edge: -1.6pp
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Close

price: 61.0¢
kind: ask
at: 2026-10-31T23:58:00.019787
clv: -1.0pp

Result

outcome: LOSS
settled_at: 2026-11-01T02:42:00.024438
pnl: n/a

Decision

first_seen_at: 2026-10-31T03:13:00.029468
last_evaluated_at: 2026-10-31T23:53:00.033314
evaluations: 120
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
ever_would_bet: no

Decision snapshot

The last evaluation before the event started (shadow) or the numbers at order time (live). Probabilities are DDN SI's; prices are Kalshi's.

at: 2026-10-31T23:53:00.033314
bet_on: Columbus Blue Jackets +1.5
line: 1.5
contract_side: no
price: 61.0¢
price_kind: ask
p_market: 60.4%
p_model: 63.0%
p_final: 60.7%
p_final_source: per_pick_posterior
edge: -2.3pp
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
source: market_scan
best_side: DAL:no
other_side: edge=-2.7pp, side=DAL:yes, price=40.0¢, p_final=39.3%, gate_outcome=rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Versions

source: market_scan
sources: ['market_scan']
decision_source: market_scan
probability_source: per_pick_posterior
posterior_method: market_blend_v1
posterior_computed_at: 2026-10-31T03:04:27.271410
analysis_updated_at: 2026-10-31T03:04:25.472965

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