Pittsburgh Penguins @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens -1.5

LOSS Shadow intent (no money) · lane NHL:spread · source market_scan · starts 2026-10-31 23:00 UTC

Closing line value: -4.0pp. Positive means the entry beat the closing price; negative means it did not. This record id is 606aa48e-43dc-45e1-b7e5-41a39719ec9a.

Entry (frozen)

basis: first_seen
at: 2026-10-31T05:43:00.023249
ticker: KXNHLSPREAD-26OCT31PITMTL-MTL2
contract_side: yes
price: 37.0¢
price_kind: ask
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
p_final: 36.3%
p_market: 36.6%
p_model: 32.9%
edge: -2.7pp
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Close

price: 33.0¢
kind: ask
at: 2026-10-31T22:58:00.017638
clv: -4.0pp

Result

outcome: LOSS
settled_at: 2026-11-01T01:58:00.023410
pnl: n/a

Decision

first_seen_at: 2026-10-31T05:43:00.023249
last_evaluated_at: 2026-10-31T22:53:00.022740
evaluations: 55
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
ever_would_bet: no

Decision snapshot

The last evaluation before the event started (shadow) or the numbers at order time (live). Probabilities are DDN SI's; prices are Kalshi's.

at: 2026-10-31T22:53:00.022740
bet_on: Montreal Canadiens -1.5
line: -1.5
contract_side: yes
price: 33.0¢
price_kind: ask
p_market: 32.7%
p_model: 32.9%
p_final: 32.7%
p_final_source: per_pick_posterior
edge: -2.3pp
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
source: market_scan
best_side: MTL:yes
other_side: edge=-2.7pp, side=MTL:no, price=68.0¢, p_final=67.3%, gate_outcome=rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Versions

source: market_scan
sources: ['market_scan']
decision_source: market_scan
probability_source: per_pick_posterior
posterior_method: market_blend_v1
posterior_computed_at: 2026-10-31T05:00:47.802889
analysis_updated_at: 2026-10-31T05:00:45.413403

This record as JSON → Back to the scoreboard →

21+ only. For entertainment and information; not financial advice. Past results do not predict future ones. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.