Minnesota Wild @ Washington Capitals: Minnesota Wild -1.5

WIN Shadow intent (no money) · lane NHL:spread · source market_scan · starts 2026-11-01 20:30 UTC

Closing line value: +2.0pp. Positive means the entry beat the closing price; negative means it did not. This record id is 8d609ed6-25ef-4633-ba82-8f1f41f6b265.

Entry (frozen)

basis: first_seen
at: 2026-10-31T21:43:00.024093
ticker: KXNHLSPREAD-26NOV01MINWSH-MIN2
contract_side: yes
price: 29.0¢
price_kind: ask
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
p_final: 28.9%
p_market: 28.7%
p_model: 30.3%
edge: -2.1pp
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Close

price: 31.0¢
kind: ask
at: 2026-11-01T20:28:00.015741
clv: +2.0pp

Result

outcome: WIN
settled_at: 2026-11-01T23:16:00.020721
pnl: n/a

Decision

first_seen_at: 2026-10-31T21:43:00.024093
last_evaluated_at: 2026-11-01T19:43:00.019878
evaluations: 121
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
ever_would_bet: no

Decision snapshot

The last evaluation before the event started (shadow) or the numbers at order time (live). Probabilities are DDN SI's; prices are Kalshi's.

at: 2026-11-01T19:43:00.019878
bet_on: Minnesota Wild -1.5
line: -1.5
contract_side: yes
price: 30.0¢
price_kind: ask
p_market: 29.7%
p_model: 30.3%
p_final: 29.8%
p_final_source: per_pick_posterior
edge: -2.2pp
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
source: market_scan
best_side: MIN:yes
other_side: edge=-2.8pp, side=MIN:no, price=71.0¢, p_final=70.2%, gate_outcome=rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Versions

source: market_scan
sources: ['market_scan']
decision_source: market_scan
probability_source: per_pick_posterior
posterior_method: market_blend_v1
posterior_computed_at: 2026-10-31T21:40:36.164485
analysis_updated_at: 2026-10-31T21:40:34.338144

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