Toronto Maple Leafs @ Vancouver Canucks: Vancouver Canucks +1.5

LOSS Shadow intent (no money) · lane NHL:spread · source market_scan · starts 2026-10-31 23:00 UTC

Closing line value: -4.0pp. Positive means the entry beat the closing price; negative means it did not. This record id is a04e5a85-d966-4506-803e-19b1ff5a33bc.

Entry (frozen)

basis: first_seen
at: 2026-10-30T20:33:00.023161
ticker: KXNHLSPREAD-26OCT31TORVAN-TOR2
contract_side: no
price: 62.0¢
price_kind: ask
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
p_final: 61.5%
p_market: 61.4%
p_model: 62.6%
edge: -2.5pp
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Close

price: 58.0¢
kind: ask
at: 2026-10-31T22:58:00.017638
clv: -4.0pp

Result

outcome: LOSS
settled_at: 2026-11-01T01:44:00.016949
pnl: n/a

Decision

first_seen_at: 2026-10-30T20:33:00.023161
last_evaluated_at: 2026-10-31T22:53:00.022740
evaluations: 136
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
ever_would_bet: no

Decision snapshot

The last evaluation before the event started (shadow) or the numbers at order time (live). Probabilities are DDN SI's; prices are Kalshi's.

at: 2026-10-31T22:53:00.022740
bet_on: Vancouver Canucks +1.5
line: 1.5
contract_side: no
price: 58.0¢
price_kind: ask
p_market: 57.4%
p_model: 62.6%
p_final: 57.9%
p_final_source: per_pick_posterior
edge: -2.1pp
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
source: market_scan
best_side: TOR:no
other_side: edge=-2.9pp, side=TOR:yes, price=43.0¢, p_final=42.1%, gate_outcome=rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Versions

source: market_scan
sources: ['market_scan']
decision_source: market_scan
probability_source: per_pick_posterior
posterior_method: market_blend_v1
posterior_computed_at: 2026-10-30T20:31:13.239374
analysis_updated_at: 2026-10-30T20:31:11.091100

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