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Minnesota Wild @ Washington Capitals: Minnesota not -1.5

LOSS  Shadow intent (no money) · lane NHL:sharp_lag · source sharp_lag · starts 2026-11-01 20:30 UTC

Closing line value: -1.0pp. Positive means the entry beat the closing price; negative means it did not. This record id is b5c26893-e22c-4cb8-8595-cd09b00fbd1f.

Entry (frozen)

basis
first_seen
at
2026-10-31T20:31:20.022466
ticker
KXNHLSPREAD-26NOV01MINWSH-MIN2
contract_side
no
price
71.0¢
price_kind
ask
fee_per_contract
2.0¢
p_final
70.7%
p_market
70.7%
p_model
n/a
edge
-2.3pp
gate_outcome
rejected:edge_below_margin

Close

price
70.0¢
kind
ask
at
2026-11-01T20:28:00.015741
clv
-1.0pp

Result

outcome
LOSS
settled_at
2026-11-01T23:16:00.020721
pnl
n/a

Decision

first_seen_at
2026-10-31T20:31:20.022466
last_evaluated_at
2026-11-01T20:13:20.019360
evaluations
665
gate_outcome
rejected:edge_below_margin
ever_would_bet
no

Decision snapshot

The last evaluation before the event started (shadow) or the numbers at order time (live). Probabilities are DDN SI's; prices are Kalshi's.

at
2026-11-01T20:13:20.019360
bet_on
Minnesota not -1.5
line
1.5
contract_side
no
price
70.0¢
price_kind
ask
p_market
69.4%
p_model
n/a
p_final
69.4%
p_final_source
consensus_devig_main
edge
-2.6pp
fee_per_contract
2.0¢
gate_outcome
rejected:edge_below_margin
source
sharp_lag

Versions

source
sharp_lag
sources
['sharp_lag']
devig
min(multiplicative,power)
kalshi_observed_at
2026-10-31T20:31:20.488465

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