Minnesota Wild @ Washington Capitals: Washington Capitals +1.5

LOSS Shadow intent (no money) · lane NHL:spread · source market_scan · starts 2026-11-01 20:30 UTC

Closing line value: -1.0pp. Positive means the entry beat the closing price; negative means it did not. This record id is bfba8217-ad52-43ce-9ec2-fbad8804a6a0.

Entry (frozen)

basis: first_seen
at: 2026-11-01T16:13:00.021950
ticker: KXNHLSPREAD-26NOV01MINWSH-MIN2
contract_side: no
price: 71.0¢
price_kind: ask
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
p_final: 71.1%
p_market: 71.3%
p_model: 69.7%
edge: -1.9pp
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Close

price: 70.0¢
kind: ask
at: 2026-11-01T20:28:00.015741
clv: -1.0pp

Result

outcome: LOSS
settled_at: 2026-11-01T23:16:00.020721
pnl: n/a

Decision

first_seen_at: 2026-11-01T16:13:00.021950
last_evaluated_at: 2026-11-01T20:23:00.020259
evaluations: 10
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
ever_would_bet: no

Decision snapshot

The last evaluation before the event started (shadow) or the numbers at order time (live). Probabilities are DDN SI's; prices are Kalshi's.

at: 2026-11-01T20:23:00.020259
bet_on: Washington Capitals +1.5
line: 1.5
contract_side: no
price: 70.0¢
price_kind: ask
p_market: 70.3%
p_model: 69.7%
p_final: 70.2%
p_final_source: per_pick_posterior
edge: -1.8pp
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
source: market_scan
best_side: MIN:no
other_side: edge=-3.2pp, side=MIN:yes, price=31.0¢, p_final=29.8%, gate_outcome=rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Versions

source: market_scan
sources: ['market_scan']
decision_source: market_scan
probability_source: per_pick_posterior
posterior_method: market_blend_v1
posterior_computed_at: 2026-11-01T14:33:30.328580
analysis_updated_at: 2026-11-01T14:33:27.347825

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