Calgary Flames @ Colorado Avalanche: Calgary Flames +1.5

LOSS Shadow intent (no money) · lane NHL:spread · source market_scan · starts 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC

Closing line value: -2.0pp. Positive means the entry beat the closing price; negative means it did not. This record id is e50c20e7-0133-4b28-94d2-3fbd3697e440.

Entry (frozen)

basis: first_seen
at: 2026-10-30T16:53:00.037384
ticker: KXNHLSPREAD-26OCT31CGYCOL-COL2
contract_side: no
price: 43.0¢
price_kind: ask
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
p_final: 44.2%
p_market: 43.1%
p_model: 53.9%
edge: -0.8pp
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Close

price: 41.0¢
kind: ask
at: 2026-11-01T01:58:00.023410
clv: -2.0pp

Result

outcome: LOSS
settled_at: 2026-11-01T04:42:00.035542
pnl: n/a

Decision

first_seen_at: 2026-10-30T16:53:00.037384
last_evaluated_at: 2026-11-01T01:53:00.018606
evaluations: 199
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
ever_would_bet: no

Decision snapshot

The last evaluation before the event started (shadow) or the numbers at order time (live). Probabilities are DDN SI's; prices are Kalshi's.

at: 2026-11-01T01:53:00.018606
bet_on: Calgary Flames +1.5
line: 1.5
contract_side: no
price: 41.0¢
price_kind: ask
p_market: 40.6%
p_model: 54.7%
p_final: 42.0%
p_final_source: per_pick_posterior
edge: -1.0pp
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
source: market_scan
best_side: COL:no
other_side: edge=-4.0pp, side=COL:yes, price=60.0¢, p_final=58.0%, gate_outcome=rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Versions

source: market_scan
sources: ['market_scan']
decision_source: market_scan
probability_source: per_pick_posterior
posterior_method: market_blend_v1
posterior_computed_at: 2026-10-30T16:48:22.574200
analysis_updated_at: 2026-10-30T16:48:21.325400

This record as JSON → Back to the scoreboard →

21+ only. For entertainment and information; not financial advice. Past results do not predict future ones. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.