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Winnipeg Jets @ Carolina Hurricanes: Carolina not -1.5

LOSS  Shadow intent (no money) · lane NHL:sharp_lag · source sharp_lag · starts 2026-11-01 18:00 UTC

Closing line value: -2.0pp. Positive means the entry beat the closing price; negative means it did not. This record id is e978d0d0-a8ee-45db-9848-3144107e35fc.

Entry (frozen)

basis
first_seen
at
2026-10-31T20:11:20.022737
ticker
KXNHLSPREAD-26NOV01WPGCAR-CAR2
contract_side
no
price
52.0¢
price_kind
ask
fee_per_contract
2.0¢
p_final
51.9%
p_market
51.9%
p_model
n/a
edge
-2.1pp
gate_outcome
rejected:edge_below_margin

Close

price
50.0¢
kind
ask
at
2026-11-01T17:58:00.015695
clv
-2.0pp

Result

outcome
LOSS
settled_at
2026-11-01T20:42:00.034611
pnl
n/a

Decision

first_seen_at
2026-10-31T20:11:20.022737
last_evaluated_at
2026-11-01T17:43:20.025226
evaluations
600
gate_outcome
rejected:edge_below_margin
ever_would_bet
no

Decision snapshot

The last evaluation before the event started (shadow) or the numbers at order time (live). Probabilities are DDN SI's; prices are Kalshi's.

at
2026-11-01T17:43:20.025226
bet_on
Carolina -1.5
line
-1.5
contract_side
yes
price
50.0¢
price_kind
ask
p_market
50.0%
p_model
n/a
p_final
50.0%
p_final_source
consensus_devig_main
edge
-2.0pp
fee_per_contract
2.0¢
gate_outcome
rejected:edge_below_margin
source
sharp_lag

Versions

source
sharp_lag
sources
['sharp_lag']
devig
min(multiplicative,power)
kalshi_observed_at
2026-10-31T20:11:20.685941

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