Utah Mammoth @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers +1.5

WIN Shadow intent (no money) · lane NHL:spread · source market_scan · starts 2026-11-01 21:00 UTC

Closing line value: -1.0pp. Positive means the entry beat the closing price; negative means it did not. This record id is f954ab34-ac30-4bd4-a640-792298cf9639.

Entry (frozen)

basis: first_seen
at: 2026-11-01T00:53:00.019889
ticker: KXNHLSPREAD-26NOV01UTAPHI-UTA2
contract_side: no
price: 64.0¢
price_kind: ask
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
p_final: 63.2%
p_market: 62.7%
p_model: 67.3%
edge: -2.8pp
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Close

price: 63.0¢
kind: ask
at: 2026-11-01T20:58:00.020237
clv: -1.0pp

Result

outcome: WIN
settled_at: 2026-11-01T23:40:00.032587
pnl: n/a

Decision

first_seen_at: 2026-11-01T00:53:00.019889
last_evaluated_at: 2026-11-01T20:43:00.021974
evaluations: 120
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
ever_would_bet: no

Decision snapshot

The last evaluation before the event started (shadow) or the numbers at order time (live). Probabilities are DDN SI's; prices are Kalshi's.

at: 2026-11-01T20:43:00.021974
bet_on: Philadelphia Flyers +1.5
line: 1.5
contract_side: no
price: 62.0¢
price_kind: ask
p_market: 61.4%
p_model: 67.3%
p_final: 62.0%
p_final_source: per_pick_posterior
edge: -2.0pp
fee_per_contract: 2.0¢
gate_outcome: rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum
source: market_scan
best_side: UTA:no
other_side: edge=-3.0pp, side=UTA:yes, price=39.0¢, p_final=38.0%, gate_outcome=rejected:fee_adjusted_edge_below_minimum

Versions

source: market_scan
sources: ['market_scan']
decision_source: market_scan
probability_source: per_pick_posterior
posterior_method: market_blend_v1
posterior_computed_at: 2026-10-31T20:10:24.563472
analysis_updated_at: 2026-10-31T20:10:22.396299

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